Oil: Not Exactly Dead Dinosaurs
Excel spreadsheet listing some of the data used for the following analyses
Other related web pages:
Contents:
Using the Depletion Theory that I have previously developed, I show here fits to United States and World extraction of crude oil, natural gas and coal. The depletion equation used to fit the extraction data is the Verhulst function:
The Q parameter is the total amount eventually to be extracted. The n parameter is a measure of the asymmetry: symmetric is n=1, skewed to early times is n<1 and skewed to later times is n>1.
United States CrudeOil extractionUnited States CrudeOil ExtractionCurrent CrudeOilFutures Price U.S. crudeoil discoveries ( http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html) and a Verhulstfunction fit to the data. 
Fit of the Verhulst function to U.S. crude oil extraction. Note that the peak occurred 19758. This is the best example of crudeoil depletion.: The total amount to be extracted is 312 x 10^{9} barrels. 
Fit of the Verhulst function to U.S. crude oil extraction and projection to 2100: 
When natural resources peak they usually oscillate around the peak. U.S. CrudeOil Extraction with sinx/x oscillations on both sides of the peak: The oscillation is mathematically represented by two sinx/x functions, one before the peak and one after the peak; they are added to the Verhulst function. An equally good fit can be obtained by using two Gaussian functions instead of sinx/x functions. My reasoning for the oscillation is that, when starting to peak, great effort is made to keep the extraction increasing; after that fails and extraction starts to fall, great effort again is made to keep it from falling. Eventually that final great effort also fails. 
Fit of the Verhulst function to U.S. crude oil offshore extraction and projection to year 2050:
The amount left to be extracted is optimistically assumed to be 7.55 x 10^{9} barrels, larger than the proved reserves of 4.335 x 10^{9} barrels. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill caused a drastic reduction in offshore extraction after 2010. 
Comparison of U.S. offshore crudeoil extraction to Alaska and total U.S, extraction: 
Best fit to U.S. offshore crudeoil extraction of the total extraction: 
This shows the change in U.S. crude oil extraction since 1945. The biggest recent yearly decrease was 6.7% in 1989 during the BushGHW administration. The average yearly decrease was 3.1% for the BushGHW administration and 2.7% during the Clinton administration. Note that the yearly changes oscillate depending on many factors, but the general trend is downward. No administration should be blamed for most of these factors and no administration can change the fact that the U.S. is running out of economically feasible crude oil. 
Data are from: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPAK1&f=M http://www.tax.alaska.gov/programs/documentviewer/viewer.aspx?426 The extraction peak occurred in less than 2 decades after the big Prudhoe Bay discovery. 
Possible Alaska ANWAR crudeoil extraction: A highvalue assumption has been made that the eventual total extraction will be 10^{10} barrels. Further assumptions are that the initial speed of extraction will be ~30% less than the PrudhoeBay speed and that the asymmetry will be the same as for PrudhoeBay extraction. 
This is included because of claims that there will be future increases in crudeoil extraction in California. The sum (31.9 x 10^{9} barrels) of the 2014 EIA estimate of reserves (~2.854 x 10^{9} barrels) and the amount already extracted (~29.0 x 10^{9} barrels) is smaller than the area under the curve (38.4 x 10^{9} barrels). Thus, if the EIA reserves estimate is correct, there is no major future for crudeoil extraction in California. 
United States NaturalGas ExtractionCurrent NaturalGasFutures Price Fit of the Verhulst function to U.S. natural gas extraction. The short large blip is shale gas. So, shale natural gas adds a short large blip to the naturalgas extraction for the United States. It could be reduced in size and stretched out over a larger time interval, but I doubt it will be. The U.S. will probably extract and use it as fast as possible. See http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/NaturalGasUS.htm . 
The jump just before 1950 is because the previous data did not include wet natural gas. 
This is for reserves much larger than the 2014 reserves of 15.28 x 10^12 ft^3. 
United States Petroleum ConsumptionThese data came from http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/petroleum_supply_monthly/current/txt/table_s02_a.txt. U.S. petroleum consumption since 1949. Note the sharp downward turn during the Carter administration (19771980); but then the increases started again by the end of Reagan's first term (19811988). Then consumption leveled off during the Bush administration (19891992) and then continued the upward trend during the Clinton administration (19932000). Note how the onset of Alaska extraction caused a temporary rise in U.S. extraction; but then, after a decade, began to decline. The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is estimated to contain 7 x 10^{9} bbl of oil. This is about one year's consumption, but it will probably be extracted over a decade or longer, which will be a negligible blip on these curves. 
United States CrudeOil Imports

United States Coal Extraction 

Here is a fit with three Verhulst functions: It appears that "peak coal" has arrived for the United States. 

U.S. Coal energy/volume and a hyperbolictangent function fit to the data: As seen below the final asymptote is somewhat above the energy content of lignite (14 MBtu/ST), as it should be. The initial asymptote is equivalent to mostly bituminous (20.5 MBtu/St), as it should be. Putting the last two graphs together, the energy available from coal in the U.S. is Although U. S. coal extraction peaks at ~20042012, U.S. coal energy peaks at ~20002004. 

The energy contents of the three different classes of coal are (1 MBtu/ST = 0.8598 MJ/kg):
Most of the coal mined in the U.S. is bituminous, with a little lignite. Anthracite extraction is almost negligible: 

1 Btu = 1055.056 joules = 2.930711x10^{4} kWh 

Here are relevant data for coal extraction in millions of tons per year for the United States:
The list is for the United States and seven states that have had peaks of more than 50million tons per year and Virginia. 

Virginia and West Virginia Coal Extraction


Pennsylvania Coal Extraction 

Kentucky Coal Extraction 

Ohio Coal Extraction


Illinois Coal Extraction 

Indiana Coal Extraction


Alabama Coal Extraction 

Texas Coal Extraction 

Oklahoma Coal Extraction 

Colorado Coal Extraction 

New Mexico Coal Extraction 

Arizona Coal Extraction 

Utah Coal Extraction 

North Dakota Coal Extraction 

Montana Coal Extraction 

World CrudeOil ExtractionWorld crudeoil discoveries ( http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html) and a Verhulstfunction fit to the data. 
World crudeoil extraction rate and a Verhulstfunctions fit to the data obtained by restricting the amount to be extracted in accord with the 2013 estimated reserves value of ~1.656 x 10^{12} (trillion) barrels. 
World crudeoil extraction per capita. The extrapolation into the future is obtain by using a fit to World population extrapolated into the future (http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid/WorldPop.htm). 
Comparison of world oil discoveries and extraction. This graph contains information that probably will have the greatest effect on those now living and born in the future. Crude Oil cannot be extracted if it has not been discovered! This graph shows very clearly why it is very unlikely that the final amount to be extracted will exceed 2x10^{12} barrels. So far the amount extracted has exceeded 1x10^{12} barrels, so we are more than halfway there! 
Monthly world oil extraction. 
World crudeoil pricesCurrent CrudeOilFutures Price It appears that the average annual crudeoil price may be leveling off just below ($100/barrel):
Gasoline Prices in the United StatesThis result can be used to predict the future price of gasoline in the United States for 1 January; it should be approximately linear in the price per barrel of crude oil. Here are those two prices: A hyperbolictangent fit of the U.S. regular gasoline price yields: Correlations of EnergyMinerals Prices and Consumer Energy Prices 
Saudi Arabia crudeoil extractionThis is a fourVerhulst fit to the Saudi Arabia crudeoil extraction data with the set value of Q=350x10^{9} barrels, which is larger than the reported reserves (~268x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~56.5x10^{9} barrels) in 2014. The fit is made with the assumption that the current rise will continue until the peak at ~2020 year and that the last peak will be symmetrical.
The blue curve would be the case if crudeoil extraction were fixed at 3.63x10^{9} barrels per year until the 208x10^{9} barrels of current reserves ran out at about year 2072. The actual case will probably be some curve in between the red and blue curve, with perhaps more than one peak in the future. It is easy to see why Saudi Arabia is installing renewable energy at a rapid pace. 
Kuwait crudeoil extractionThis is a twoVerhulst fit to the Kuwait crudeoil extraction data. The total amount to be extracted was set at 155x10^{9} barrels, which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves (~104x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (about ~46.7x10^{9} barrels). The last peak is assumed to be symmetrical.
The blue curve would be the case if crudeoil extraction were fixed at 0.935x10^{9} barrels per year until the 104x10^{9} barrels of current reserves ran out at about year 2134. 
United Arab Emirates crudeoil extractionThis is a 3Verhulst fit to the UAE crudeoil extraction data. The total amount to be extracted was set at Q=140x10^{9} barrels, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves (~97.8x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~33.5x10^{9} barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical. The blue curve would be the case if crudeoil extraction were fixed at 1.0x10^{9} barrels per year until the 98x10^{9} barrels of current reserves ran out at about year 2130. Seven emirates comprise UAE: Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras alKhaimah, Sharjah, and Umm alQuwain. 
Oman crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 20x10^{9} barrels for a 3Verhulst fit, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~5.5x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~10.7x10^{9} barrels barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical. 
Qatar crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 40x10^{9} barrels for a Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~25x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~12.6x10^{9} barrels barrels).The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical. 
Iran crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted is set at 230x10^{9} barrels, which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves (~157x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~68x10^{9} barrels).
The 2013 low was due to economic sanctions on Iran. 
Iraq crudeoil extractionThe 4Verhulsts fit has a total amount to be extracted set to Q=180x10^{9} barrels, which is slightly more than the 2014 estimated reserves (~140x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~36.7x10^{9} barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical.
Due to the animosity among three ethnic groups in Iraq, it is likely that its future crudeoil extraction will oscillate around its depletion curve. 
Nigeria crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 70x10^{9} barrels for a 2Verhulst fit, which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (37x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~33x10^{9} barrels). The final peak was assumed to be symmetrical. 
Angola crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 25x10^{9} barrels for a 2Verhulst fit, which is slightly less than the 2014 reported reserves amount (9.1x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~11.6x10^{9} barrels). 
Equatorial Guinea crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 2.87x10^{9} barrels for a Verhulst fit which is smaller than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~1.1x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.74x10^{9} barrels). The years before 1995 were not used in making the fit. 
Algeria crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 36.3x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is slightly smaller than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~12.2x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~26.5x10^{9} barrels). 
/Tunisia crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 2.16x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.425x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.55x10^{9} barrels). / 
Libya crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 85x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~48.5x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~30.3x10^{9} barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical.
The last few years, whose low values were due to the civil war, were not used in making the fit. 
Sudan crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 4x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is about the same as the 2013 reported reserves amount (~1.25x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.84x10^{9} barrels). Years before 2000 and the last 4 years were not used in making the fit. 
Turkey crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set to 1.5x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.2948x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.196x10^{9} barrels). The final peak was assumed to be symmetrical. 
Egypt crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 14.8x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~4.4x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~10.8x10^{9} barrels). 
Gabon crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 6x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~2x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~4.07x10^{9} barrels). 
Congo (Brazzaville) crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 3.08x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is somewhat smaller than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~1.6x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.7x10^{9} barrels). 
Brunei crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 3.69x10^{9} barrels for the 2Verhulst fit, which is considerably smaller than the 2013 reported reserves amount (~1.1x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~3.3x10^{9} barrels. 
Cameroon crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 2.37x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.2x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.41x10^{9} barrels). 
Chad crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set to 3x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~1.5x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~0.94x10^{9} barrels). The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Ghana crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set to 1x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.66x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~0.172x10^{9} barrels). The final peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Uganda crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set to 2.5x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~2.5x10^{9} barrels). The peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

South Africa crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 3.91x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.015x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.86x10^{9} barrels). 
India crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set to 15x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~5.6x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~8.3x10^{9} barrels). The final peak was assumed to be symmetrical. 
Syria crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 8x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~2.5x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~5.2x10^{9} barrels). The last three years' values, due to the civil war, were not used in making the fit. 
Yemen crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 7x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is slightly larger tan the 2014 reported reserves amount (~3x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~3x10^{9} barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical. 
Azerbaijan crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 17.8x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is slightly less than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~7x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~13.8x10^{9} barrels). 
Kazakhstan crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 40x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~30x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~9.9x10^{9} barrels). The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Uzbekistan crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 2x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.594x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~0.641x10^{9} barrels). The future peak is assumed to be symmetrical. 
Turkmenistan crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 5x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit which is much larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.6x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.04x10^{9} barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical. It would be helpful to have extraction data before 1980. 
Malaysia crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 20.5x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~4x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~12.8x10^{9} barrels). 
Vietnam crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set to 10x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~4.4x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.6x10^{9} barrels). The future peak is assumed to be symmetrical. 
Thailand crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set to 2x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.4488x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.32x10^{9} barrels). The peak was assumed to be symmetrical. 
Australia crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 10.3x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit which is about the same as the 2014 reported reserves amount (~1.4x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~8.0x10^{9} barrels). 
Venezuela crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 375x10^{9} barrels for the singleVerhulst fit, which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~298x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~67x10^{9} barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical. The future peak is mostly heavy oil. 
Peru crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 3.97x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.6329x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.47x10^{9} barrels). 
Trinidad & Tobago crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 3.2x10^{9} barrels for the 3Verhulst fit which is slightly smaller than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.73x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.8x10^{9} barrels). 
Mexico crudeoil extraction.For the Verhulst fit the total amount to be extracted searched to 59x10^{9} barrels which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~10x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~38.1x10^{9} barrels). References: 
Brazil crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set to 35x10^{9} barrels which is slightly greater than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~13.2x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~14.7x10^{9} barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical. The reserves used in this calculation was posted by the U.S. Energy Information Agency in 2013. Obviously, it does not include the recent offshore discoveries called Presal, with estimates up to 100x10^{9} barrels. The best article I found about Presal is :http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13348824. I think that it is very uncertain as to how much oil can actually be recovered from Presal. The Economist article mentions many problems with extracting oil from Presal. Countries almost always greatly exaggerate oil discoveries. 50x10^{9} barrels or more would be an amazing discovery. None that large have been discovered for over 40 years. I don't believe the numbers given by Petrobras for the Presal discovery. 
Colombia crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set at 10x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~2.4x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~7.1x10^{9} barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetric. 
Argentina crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 16.5x10^{9} barrels for the 3Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~2.8x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~11.0x10^{9} barrels). 
Ecuador crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted was set to 15x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~8.24x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~5.5x110^{9} barrels). The final peak is assumed to be symmetrical. 
Indonesia crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 29.2x10^{9} barrels for the 2Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~3.59x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~22.8x10^{9} barrels). 
SovietUnion/Russia crudeoil extraction.The total amount to be extracted was set to 260x10^{9} barrels which is about the same as the 2014 reserves estimate of ~80x10^{9} barrels plus the amount already extracted (~173x10^{9} barrels).
Of course, the first peak is for the entire Soviet Union and the second peak is for Russia alone. 
China crudeoil extractionThe redcurve Verhulst fit was set at Q=75x10^{9} barrels, which is slightly more than 2015 reserves of 24.6x10^{9} barrels and ~46.7.3x10^{9} barrels already extracted. However, a better fit was obtained with a reserves value of 66.5 x10^{9} barrels, the blue curve.

Romania crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted searched to 6.9x10^{9} barrels for the Verhulst fit which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.6x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~5.8x10^{9} barrels).. 
United Kingdom crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted for a 2Verhulst fit searched to Q=30.3x10^{9} barrels, which is slightly more than the reported reserves amount (2.98x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~26.1x10^{9} barrels) 
Denmark crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted for a Verhulst fit was set to Q=4x10^{9} barrels, which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.8051x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~2.54x10^{9} barrels). The future peak is assumed to be symmetrical. 
Germany crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted for a Verhulst fit was set to to Q=2x10^{9} barrels, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.2326x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.3x10^{9} barrels). The initial and final peaks were assumed to be symmetrical. 
France crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted for a Verhulst fit searched to Q=1.3x10^{9} barrels, which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.08957x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.2x10^{9} barrels). 
Italy crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted for a Verhulst fit was set to Q=2.5x10^{9} barrels, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.5605x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~1.1x10^{9} barrels). The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical. 
Spain crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted for a Verhulst fit was set to 0.4x10^{9} barrels, which is slightly larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.15x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~0.21x10^{9} barrels). The future peak was assumed to be symmetrical.

Netherlands crudeoil extractionThe total amount to be extracted for a Verhulst fit was set to Q=1x10^{9} barrels, which is larger than the 2014 reported reserves amount (~0.3026x10^{9} barrels) plus the amount already extracted (~0.41x10^{9} barrels). 
Canada crudeoil extractionThe 2014 reserves value is ~173x10^{9} barrels. This fit uses a value slightly larger than that:

Norway crudeoil extractionThe 2014 reserves reported for Norway (5.825x10^{9} barrels) is about the same as the set Q value (32x10^{9} barrels) minus the amount already extracted (~25.6x10^{9} barrels).

World NaturalGas DiscoveriesThis and the curve below for world naturalgas extraction were fitted together with a common value for amount eventually discovered and extracted (7.8x10^{15} ft^{3}). 
Comparison of world naturalgas discoveries and extraction. This graph contains information that probably will have the greatest effect on those now living and born in the future. Natural gas cannot be extracted if it has not been discovered! This graph shows very clearly why it is very unlikely that the final amount to be extracted will exceed 8x10^{15} ft^{3}. So far the amount extracted is about 3x10^{15} ft^{3}, so we are more than onethird of the way there! The amount to be eventually extracted was set to 10.5x10^{15} ft^{3}, which is slightly larger than the sum of the 2012 reserves (~6.845x10^{15} ft^{3}) and the amount already extracted (~3.5x10^{15} ft^{3}) This does not include uncertain shale gas; see below. 
Adding in uncertain shale gas:The short large blip is an estimate of shale gas extraction . So, shale natural gas may add a short large blip to the naturalgas extraction for the World. It could be reduced in size and stretched out over a larger time interval, but I doubt it will be. The world will probably extract and use it as fast as possible. 
Canada NaturalGas Extraction

Trinidad and Tabago NaturalGas Extraction

Australia NaturalGas Extraction

Venezuela NaturalGas Extraction

China NaturalGas Extraction

Russia NaturalGas Extraction

Ukraine NaturalGas Extraction

Iran NaturalGas Extraction

Qatar NaturalGas Extraction

Yemen NaturalGas Extraction

Saudi Arabia NaturalGas Extraction

Kuwait NaturalGas Extraction

UAE NaturalGas Extraction

UK NaturalGas Extraction

Norway NaturalGas Extraction

Netherlands NaturalGas Extraction

Germany NaturalGas Extraction

Italy NaturalGas Extraction

Romania NaturalGas Extraction

Indonesia NaturalGas Extraction

Vietnam NaturalGas Extraction

Oman NaturalGas Extraction

Bahrain NaturalGas Extraction

Nigeria NaturalGas Extraction

Angola NaturalGas Extraction

Algeria NaturalGas Extraction

Libya NaturalGas Extraction

Mozambique NaturalGas Extraction

Thailand NaturalGas Extraction

Malaysia NaturalGas Extraction

Brunei NaturalGas Extraction

Egypt NaturalGas Extraction

India NaturalGas Extraction

Pakistan NaturalGas Extraction

Bangladesh NaturalGas Extraction

Uzbekistan NaturalGas Extraction

Kazakhistan NaturalGas Extraction

Azerbaijan NaturalGas Extraction

Turkmenistan NaturalGas Extraction

Iraq NaturalGas Extraction

World Coal Extraction 
This Verhulst fit was made to extraction using the reserves estimate (948 x 10^{9} short tons) from the USA EIA. There are some indications that the estimated reserves value is too high; if that is so, the peak will occur sooner than 2040. 
Canada Coal Extraction

China Coal ExtractionThe 18 Nov 2010 issue of Nature (468, pp.367369) gives two different possible values for coal reserves in China: 187 x 10^{9} or 115 x 10^{9} short tons. (The 2008 EIA estimate of reserves is 126.215 x 10^{9} short tons.) The following shows fits of the Verhulst function to the China coal extraction data for those two reserves values.
It either case coal extraction in China will peak around year 2020. Carbon capture in China: 
Mongolia Coal Extraction

Kazakhstan Coal ExtractionThe fit to the data uses slightly more than the 2016 reserves value ~33.6x10^{9} tons. 
India Coal Extraction

Indonesia Coal Extraction

South Africa Coal Extraction

United Kingdom Coal ExtractionThe UK is a good example of coal depletion: The data are taken from: 
Germany Coal Extraction

Poland Coal Extraction

Greece Coal Extraction

Turkey Coal Extraction

Russia Coal Extraction

Australia Coal Extraction

Major CoalExtracting Nations 
Excel spreadsheet listing some of the data used in the analyses above