Presidents' and Congresses' Economy Scores

L. David Roper (roperld@vt.edu)

(Back to Politics)
(Back to Economy and Political Parties)
(Down to Congress and the Economy)
(Business Cycles and Political Parties)
(Down to tables of data.)

There are many different economic indicators that one might apply to rank United States presidential administrations and congresses on how well they handled the economy. I have picked the following:

Therefore, I calculate a score (S) for presidential administrations since the Hoover administration using the following formula:

If C<0 (deflation) use: S=G-D+C-U; if C>0 (inflation) use: S=G-D-C-U; i.e. S=G-D-|C|-U where |C|=absolute value of C.
This assumes that high inflation (C>0) and high deflation (C<0) (depression) are equally bad.

The scores for presidential administrations since 1929 are shown in the graph below and in the data table below the graph.

Presidents' Economy Scores. Note the unfortunate situation of Democratic President Carter's 4-year term being after an 8-year-term Republican administration and the fortunate situation of Republican Eisenhower being after a 20-year-term Democratic administration. Note that the Reagan/Bush administrations are almost as bad as the Franklin Roosevelt administration during World War II. Of course, the Roosevelt administration not only had to overcome the bad economy of the Hoover administration but, also, had to fight a major war. The Nixon administration started a major slide that the Carter administration could not overcome and the Reagan/Bush administrations continued the bad situation. The Clinton administration began the rise back to good economic times.
This compares the sum of the scores for the Democratic administrations (Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy/Johnson, Carter, Clinton) and Republican administrations (Hoover, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Bush). Nuff said!
Graphs of the separate components of the economy score.
Back to top of Presidents' and Congresses' Economy Scores
(Back to Politics)
(Back to Economy and Political Parties)

Congress and the Economy

For Congresses it is not so easy to devise a score. Instead I calculate correlation coefficients over the years 1930-1999 for the various components of the score, the score, the ratio of Democrats to Republicans in the Senate, House and President (Democrat=1, Republican =0). I used Microsoft Excel to calculate the correlation coefficients. The help file for MS Excel describes how to interpret the correlations coefficients: "You can use the Correlation tool to determine whether two ranges of data move together — that is, whether large values of one set are associated with large values of the other (positive correlation), whether small values of one set are associated with large values of the other (negative correlation), or whether values in both sets are unrelated (correlation near zero). "

Another way to ascertain the effect of party composition of the Congress is to assign the following government party control index:

A diagram showing the Democratic Party Control Index:
Democratic Control Democratic Party Control Index Republican Control
nothing 0 President, House & Senate
Senate 1 President & House
House 2 President & Senate
House & Senate 3 President
President 4 House & Senate
President & Senate 5 House
President & House 6 Senate
President, House & Senate 7 nothing

The correlation coefficients are:

Correlations % GDP Change % Debt Increase ABS(% CPI Change) % Unemployed Change Score=G-D-C-U Senate Dem/Rep House Dem/Rep President Dem/Rep Democrat Control Republican Control
% GDP Change 1
% Debt Increase 0.373 1
ABS(% CPI Change) 0.097 0.165 1
% Unemployed Change -0.901 -0.278 0.166 1
Score=G-D-C-U 0.293 -0.741 -0.362 -0.407 1
Senate Dem/Rep 0.16 0.07 -0.22 -0.28 0.11 1
House Dem/Rep 0.16 0.05 -0.09 -0.21 0.09 0.77 1
President Dem/Rep 0.26 0.09 -0.05 -0.36 0.12 0.32 0.24 1
Democrat Control 0.41 0.18 -0.09 -0.48 0.15 0.49 0.45 0.88 1
Republican Control -0.41 -0.18 0.09 0.48 -0.15 -0.49 -0.45 -0.88 -1 1

The five blue cells show the correlation coefficients for:

Thus, Democratic Congresses and presidents more often coincide with high economy scores than do Republican Congresses and presidents.

The yellow cells show the correlations of the four components of the economy score with Democratic Senates, Houses, presidents and Democratic/Republican control of the government. Notable is the sizeable negative correlation coefficients for unemployment and Democratic Senates/Houses/presidents and the sizeable positive correlation coefficients for GDP (gross domestic product) and Democratic Senates/Houses/presidents. Of particular note is the 0.41 correlation between Democratic control and the increase in GDP and the 0.48 correlation between Republican control and the increase in unemployment.

The purple cells show the correlation coefficients for having Democratic Senates, Houses and presidents; that is, how likely it is to have one with the other.

It is clear from the above that the U.S. economy is generally better during Democratic party control than it is during Republican party control. Some possible reasons why this is the case are:

Business Cycles and Political Parties

Another measure of the goodness of the economy is the number of months in a business-cycle expansion and contraction. I have analyzed these in another web page.

Data Tables

The table below gives the values used to calculate the economy scores for presidential administrations since 1929.

President Average % GDP Change Average % Debt Increase Average ABS(% CPI change) Average Change % Unemployed Combined Averages (G-D-|C|-U) Years
Hoover -17.10 5.13 7.07 6.80 -36.09 4*
RooseveltF 11.25 23.91 3.52 -1.67 -14.51 13
Truman 7.16 0.06 6.16 0.16 0.79 7
Eisenhower 4.98 1.45 1.49 0.31 1.73 8
Kennedy/Johnson 7.10 2.67 2.05 -0.25 2.63 8
Nixon 9.07 7.91 6.36 5.84 -11.03 8
Carter 11.28 9.23 9.73 6.54 -14.22 4
Reagan 7.86 13.78 4.65 7.54 -18.11 12
Bush 5.47 11.80 4.35 6.30 -16.99 4
Clinton 5.68 4.86 2.36 5.21 -6.75 8
Total Total Total Total Total
Democrat 42.47 40.72 23.80 9.99 -32.05
Republican 10.28 40.07 9.78 26.79 -66.36
* Data available only for the last 3 years.
For the CPI average the absolute value (|CPI|) is used; that is, inflation and deflation are considered equally bad.
For the combined averages CPI is taken as the absolute value for the same reason.
Graphs of the separate components of the economy score.
Back to top of Presidents' and Congresses' Economy Scores
(Back to Politics)
(Back to Economy and Political Parties)
Economy Indicators and Political Party Control of Government
Party Control variable: 7=PHS, 6=PH, 5=PS, 4=P, 3=HS, 2=H, 1=S, 0=none
Year % GDP Change % Debt Increase ABS(% CPI Change) % Unemployed Change Score=
G-D-C-U
Senate Dem/Rep House Dem/Rep President Dem/Rep Democrat Control Republican Control Year President
1929 -3.8 0 0.70 0.61 0 0 7 1929 Hoover
1930 -11.96 -4.4 2.3 5.50 -15.35 0.98 0.61 0 0 7 1930 Hoover
1931 -16.10 3.8 9 7.20 -36.11 0.98 0.99 0 0 7 1931 Hoover
1932 -23.24 16.0 9.9 7.70 -56.82 1.64 0.99 0 1 6 1932 Hoover
1933 -4.08 15.7 5.1 1.30 -26.14 1.64 2.68 1 7 0 1933 RooseveltF
1934 17.02 20.0 3.1 -3.20 -2.91 2.76 2.68 1 7 0 1934 RooseveltF
1935 11.06 6.1 2.2 -1.60 4.37 2.76 3.13 1 7 0 1935 RooseveltF
1936 14.19 17.7 1.5 -3.20 -1.80 4.41 3.13 1 7 0 1936 RooseveltF
1937 9.80 7.8 3.6 -2.60 0.96 4.41 3.74 1 7 0 1937 RooseveltF
1938 -6.31 2.0 2.1 4.70 -15.14 3.00 3.74 1 7 0 1938 RooseveltF
1939 6.85 8.8 1.4 -1.80 -1.56 3.00 1.55 1 7 0 1939 RooseveltF
1940 10.11 6.3 0.7 -2.60 5.76 2.36 1.55 1 7 0 1940 RooseveltF
1941 25.07 13.9 5 -4.70 10.83 2.36 1.65 1 7 0 1941 RooseveltF
1942 27.70 47.9 10.9 -5.20 -25.91 1.50 1.65 1 7 0 1942 RooseveltF
1943 22.62 89.1 6.1 -2.80 -69.81 1.50 1.06 1 7 0 1943 RooseveltF
1944 10.74 46.8 1.7 -0.70 -37.01 1.50 1.06 1 7 0 1944 RooseveltF
1945 1.50 28.7 2.3 0.70 -30.19 1.50 1.28 1 7 0 1945 RooseveltF/Truman
1946 -0.31 4.2 8.3 2.00 -14.77 0.88 1.28 1 6 1 1946 Truman
1947 9.94 -4.1 14.4 0.00 -0.33 0.88 0.76 1 4 3 1947 Truman
1948 10.31 -2.3 8.1 -0.15 4.68 1.29 0.76 1 5 2 1948 Truman
1949 -0.70 0.2 1.2 2.30 -4.39 1.29 1.54 1 7 0 1949 Truman
1950 9.94 1.8 1.3 -0.84 7.66 1.02 1.54 1 7 0 1950 Truman
1951 15.36 -0.8 7.9 -1.93 10.21 1.02 1.18 1 7 0 1951 Truman
1952 5.63 1.5 1.9 -0.26 2.46 0.96 1.18 1 6 1 1952 Truman
1953 5.94 2.7 0.8 -0.10 2.55 0.96 0.96 0 0 7 1953 Eisenhower
1954 0.32 4.8 0.7 2.67 -7.82 1.02 0.96 0 1 6 1954 Eisenhower
1955 8.95 0.7 0.4 -1.23 9.05 1.02 1.14 0 3 4 1955 Eisenhower
1956 5.49 -1.5 1.5 -0.24 5.71 1.04 1.14 0 3 4 1956 Eisenhower
1957 5.37 -0.6 3.3 0.18 2.52 1.04 1.16 0 3 4 1957 Eisenhower
1958 1.39 2.9 2.8 2.54 -6.87 1.88 1.16 0 3 4 1958 Eisenhower
1959 8.44 2.8 0.7 -1.39 6.29 1.88 1.85 0 3 4 1959 Eisenhower
1960 3.94 -0.3 1.7 0.09 2.41 1.78 1.85 0 3 4 1960 Eisenhower
1961 3.47 2.1 1 1.15 -0.73 1.78 1.50 1 7 0 1961 Kennedy
1962 7.48 2.5 1 -1.13 5.14 2.03 1.50 1 7 0 1962 Kennedy/Johnson
1963 5.49 1.9 1.3 0.07 2.18 2.03 1.47 1 7 0 1963 Johnson
1964 7.39 2.8 1.3 -0.48 3.79 2.13 1.47 1 7 0 1964 Johnson
1965 8.38 0.9 1.6 -0.65 6.50 2.13 2.11 1 7 0 1965 Johnson
1966 9.61 2.6 2.9 -0.72 4.80 1.78 2.11 1 7 0 1966 Johnson
1967 5.68 4.7 3.1 0.05 -2.13 1.78 1.33 1 7 0 1967 Johnson
1968 9.28 3.9 4.2 -0.28 1.48 1.38 1.33 1 7 0 1968 Johnson
1969 8.10 2.8 5.5 -0.07 -0.18 1.38 1.27 0 3 4 1969 Nixon
1970 5.52 5.7 5.7 1.49 -7.36 1.23 1.27 0 3 4 1970 Nixon
1971 8.55 9.0 4.4 0.97 -5.80 1.23 1.42 0 3 4 1971 Nixon
1972 9.91 5.9 3.2 -0.35 1.12 1.33 1.42 0 3 4 1972 Nixon
1973 11.70 4.6 6.2 -0.74 1.63 1.33 1.26 0 3 4 1973 Nixon
1974 8.34 4.8 11 0.78 -8.27 1.65 1.26 0 3 4 1974 Nixon
1975 8.94 17.0 9.1 2.83 -20.04 1.65 2.02 0 3 4 1975 Nixon
1976 11.54 13.3 5.8 -0.77 -6.82 1.61 2.02 0 3 4 1976 Nixon
1977 11.38 10.0 6.5 -0.65 -4.48 1.61 2.04 1 7 0 1977 Carter
1978 13.02 9.8 7.6 -0.98 -3.37 1.41 2.04 1 7 0 1978 Carter
1979 11.78 7.1 11.3 -0.22 -6.39 1.41 1.75 1 7 0 1979 Carter
1980 8.93 10.1 13.5 1.33 -15.96 0.87 1.75 1 6 1 1980 Carter
1981 12.01 10.6 10.3 0.44 -9.32 0.87 1.26 0 2 5 1981 Reagan
1982 4.08 16.4 6.2 2.09 -20.57 0.85 1.26 0 2 5 1982 Reagan
1983 8.46 17.8 3.2 -0.11 -12.48 0.85 1.62 0 2 5 1983 Reagan
1984 11.25 17.9 4.3 -2.09 -8.84 0.89 1.62 0 2 5 1984 Reagan
1985 7.13 17.0 3.6 -0.32 -13.17 0.89 1.39 0 2 5 1985 Reagan
1986 5.69 9.2 1.9 -0.19 -5.23 1.22 1.39 0 3 4 1986 Reagan
1987 6.50 10.6 3.6 -0.83 -6.86 1.22 1.46 0 3 4 1987 Reagan
1988 7.71 10.7 4.1 -0.68 -6.43 1.22 1.46 0 3 4 1988 Reagan
1989 7.45 9.8 4.8 -0.23 -6.91 1.22 1.49 0 3 4 1989 Bush
1990 5.72 13.2 5.4 0.36 -13.19 1.27 1.49 0 3 4 1990 Bush
1991 3.15 13.4 4.2 1.23 -15.64 1.27 1.60 0 3 4 1991 Bush
1992 5.56 10.9 3 0.64 -8.98 1.33 1.60 0 3 4 1992 Bush
1993 5.12 8.5 3 -0.58 -5.83 1.33 1.47 1 7 0 1993 Clinton
1994 6.20 6.4 2.6 -0.81 -1.96 0.92 1.47 1 6 1 1994 Clinton
1995 4.91 6.0 2.8 -0.51 -3.38 0.92 0.89 1 4 3 1995 Clinton
1996 5.58 5.0 3 -0.18 -2.28 0.87 0.89 1 4 3 1996 Clinton
1997 6.47 3.6 2.3 -0.48 1.04 0.87 0.92 1 4 3 1997 Clinton
1998 5.67 2.1 0.6 -0.43 3.42 0.87 0.92 1 4 3 1998 Clinton
1999 5.79 2.4 2.2 -0.28 1.51 0.87 0.95 1 4 3 1999 Clinton
2000 -0.22 0.87 0.95 1 4 3 2000 Clinton
Year % GDP Change % Debt Increase ABS(% CPI Change) % Unemployed Change Score=
G-D-C-U
Senate Dem/Rep House Dem/Rep President Dem/Rep Democrat Control Republican Control Year President
Back to top of Presidents' and Congresses' Economy Scores
(Back to Politics)
(Back to Economy and Political Parties)