Unemployment and Political Parties

L. David Roper (roperld@vt.edu)

(Back to Politics)
(Back to Economy and Political Parties)
(Go to data tables at bottom.)

Update to this page.

This shows the U. S. unemployment data for the years 1929-2000 compared to the presidential terms (Dem=1, Rep=0) and Democratic control index of the federal government (see below for definition). Note the large rises in the Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan/Bush administrations and the falls in the Kennedy-Johnson, Carter and Clinton administrations, especially the former and the latter.
This shows the unemployment change year by year for the years 1930-2000 compared to the presidential terms (Dem=1, Rep=0) and Democratic control index of the federal government (see below for definition). Note the large oscillations in the Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan/Bush administrations and the relative small changes in the Kennedy-Johnson, Carter and Clinton administrations, especially the former and the latter.
This shows the U. S. unemployment data for the years 1945-2000 compared to the presidential terms (Dem=1, Rep=0) and Democratic control index of the federal government (see below for definition). Note the large rises in the Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan/Bush administrations and the falls in the Kennedy-Johnson, Carter and Clinton administrations, especially the former and the latter.
This shows the unemployment change year by year for the years 1945-2000 compared to the presidential terms (Dem=1, Rep=0) and Democratic control index of the federal government (see below for definition). Note the large oscillations in the Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan/Bush administrations and the relative small negative changes in the Kennedy-Johnson, Carter and Clinton administrations, especially the former and the latter.
This shows the average change in the % unemployed for presidential administrations after the Franklin Roosevelt administration. Standard deviations are shown. Note the highs for Eisenhower, Nixon and Bush and the low for Clinton.
This shows the average change in the % unemployed for the Democratic control index (see below for definition). Standard deviations are shown, except for index 5 since it is for only one year (1948) which gives an infinite standard deviation. Note the high for index 0 (Republican president, house and senate). The lowest average is for Republican president with Democratic House, Senate or House and Senate.
This shows the average change in the % unemployed for the Democratic control index (see below for definition) excluding the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations. Standard deviations are shown, except for indices 0, 1 and 5 since they are for only one year each, which gives an infinite standard deviation. Note the lows for Democratic president (index 4) and full Democratic control (index 7).
This shows the average change in the % unemployed plotted for presidential administrations by political party. Standard deviations are shown. Since the Hoover and Roosevelt admininistrations included the singular events of the Great Depression and World War II, also shown are the administrations without those two administrations. Note the high for Republican admininistrations including Hoover and the low for Democratic presidents including Roosevelt, butboth with a large standard deviation.
The Democratic Control Index is defined as
  • 7=Democratic party has presidency and majorities in both the Senate and House.
  • 6=Democratic party has presidency and majority in the House.
  • 5=Democratic party has presidency and majority in the Senate.
  • 4=Democratic party has presidency only.
  • 3=Democratic party has majority in the House and Senate, but not the presidency.
  • 2=Democratic party has majority in the House only and not the presidency.
  • 1=Democratic party has majority in the Senate only and not the presidency.
  • 0=Democratic party is in minority in both the Senate and the House and does not have the presidency.
A diagram showing the Democratic Party Control Index:
Democratic Control Democratic Party Control Index Republican Control
nothing 0 President, House & Senate
Senate 1 President & House
House 2 President & Senate
House & Senate 3 President
President 4 House & Senate
President & Senate 5 House
President & House 6 Senate
President, House & Senate 7 nothing

The correlation coefficients for Democratic control of the Senate, House and presidency with the change in the % unemployment are:

Correlations % Unemployed Change
Senate Dem/Rep -0.26
House Dem/Rep -0.21
President Dem. -0.36
Democratic Control Index -0.48

For administrations since Franklin Roosevelts' the correlations are:

Correlations % Unemployed Change
Senate Dem/Rep -0.04
House Dem/Rep -0.08
President Dem. -0.18
Democratic Control Index -0.16

Thus, we see that negative change in % unemployed occurs about 35% more often when we have a Democratic president than when we have a Republican president and about 45% more often when we have mostly Democractic control of the govenment.

(Back to the top of Unemployment)
(Back to Economy and Political Parties)
(Back to Politics)

The data are found at http://stats.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab5.htm and http://146.142.4.24/cgi-bin/srgate (request report LFU21000100) and http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/fedstl/unrate+2.

U.S. Unemployment civilian labor force seasonally adjusted
As a percent of the civilian labor force. age>=14 1929-1947; age>=16 1948-2000 Senate House President
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % Unemployment Yearly Change Dem. Rep. Senate D/R Dem. Rep. House D/R Dem. Rep. Year
1929 3.2 39 56 0.70 163 267 0.61 0 1 1929 Hoover
1930 8.7 5.50 39 56 0.70 163 267 0.61 0 1 1930 Hoover
1931 15.9 7.20 47 48 0.98 216 218 0.99 0 1 1931 Hoover
1932 23.6 7.70 47 48 0.98 216 218 0.99 0 1 1932 Hoover
1933 24.9 1.30 59 36 1.64 313 117 2.68 1 0 1933 RooseveltF
1934 21.7 -3.20 59 36 1.64 313 117 2.68 1 0 1934 RooseveltF
1935 20.1 -1.60 69 25 2.76 322 103 3.13 1 0 1935 RooseveltF
1936 16.9 -3.20 69 25 2.76 322 103 3.13 1 0 1936 RooseveltF
1937 14.3 -2.60 75 17 4.41 333 89 3.74 1 0 1937 RooseveltF
1938 19 4.70 75 17 4.41 333 89 3.74 1 0 1938 RooseveltF
1939 17.2 -1.80 69 23 3.00 262 169 1.55 1 0 1939 RooseveltF
1940 14.6 -2.60 69 23 3.00 262 169 1.55 1 0 1940 RooseveltF
1941 9.9 -4.70 66 28 2.36 267 162 1.65 1 0 1941 RooseveltF
1942 4.7 -5.20 66 28 2.36 267 162 1.65 1 0 1942 RooseveltF
1943 1.9 -2.80 57 38 1.50 222 209 1.06 1 0 1943 RooseveltF
1944 1.2 -0.70 57 38 1.50 222 209 1.06 1 0 1944 RooseveltF
1945 1.9 0.70 57 38 1.50 243 190 1.28 1 0 1945 RooseveltF/Truman
1946 3.9 2.00 57 38 1.50 243 190 1.28 1 0 1946 Truman
1947 3.9 0.00 45 51 0.88 188 246 0.76 1 0 1947 Truman
1948 3.4 3.8 4 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 4 3.75 -0.15 45 51 0.88 188 246 0.76 1 0 1948 Truman
1949 4.3 4.7 5 5.3 6.1 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.6 7.9 6.4 6.6 6.05 2.30 54 42 1.29 263 171 1.54 1 0 1949 Truman
1950 6.5 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.4 5 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3 5.21 -0.84 54 42 1.29 263 171 1.54 1 0 1950 Truman
1951 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.28 -1.93 48 47 1.02 234 199 1.18 1 0 1951 Truman
1952 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 3 3 3.2 3.4 3.1 3 2.8 2.7 3.03 -0.26 48 47 1.02 234 199 1.18 1 0 1952 Truman
1953 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.5 2.93 -0.10 46 48 0.96 213 221 0.96 0 1 1953 Eisenhower
1954 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 6 6.1 5.7 5.3 5 5.59 2.67 46 48 0.96 213 221 0.96 0 1 1954 Eisenhower
1955 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.2 4 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.37 -1.23 48 47 1.02 232 203 1.14 0 1 1955 Eisenhower
1956 4 3.9 4.2 4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.2 4.13 -0.24 48 47 1.02 232 203 1.14 0 1 1956 Eisenhower
1957 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.2 4.30 0.18 49 47 1.04 234 201 1.16 0 1 1957 Eisenhower
1958 5.8 6.4 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.2 6.2 6.84 2.54 49 47 1.04 234 201 1.16 0 1 1958 Eisenhower
1959 6 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 5 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.3 5.45 -1.39 64 34 1.88 283 153 1.85 0 1 1959 Eisenhower
1960 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.6 5.54 0.09 64 34 1.88 283 153 1.85 0 1 1960 Eisenhower
1961 6.6 6.9 6.9 7 7.1 6.9 7 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.1 6 6.69 1.15 64 36 1.78 262 175 1.50 1 0 1961 Kennedy
1962 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.57 -1.13 64 36 1.78 262 175 1.50 1 0 1962 Kennedy/Johnson
1963 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.5 5.64 0.07 67 33 2.03 258 176 1.47 1 0 1963 Johnson
1964 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.2 4.9 5 5.1 5.1 4.8 5 5.16 -0.48 67 33 2.03 258 176 1.47 1 0 1964 Johnson
1965 4.9 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4 4.51 -0.65 68 32 2.13 295 140 2.11 1 0 1965 Johnson
1966 4 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.79 -0.72 68 32 2.13 295 140 2.11 1 0 1966 Johnson
1967 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 4 3.9 3.8 3.84 0.05 64 36 1.78 248 187 1.33 1 0 1967 Johnson
1968 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.56 -0.28 64 36 1.78 248 187 1.33 1 0 1968 Johnson
1969 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.49 -0.07 58 42 1.38 243 192 1.27 0 1 1969 Nixon
1970 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.1 4.98 1.49 58 42 1.38 243 192 1.27 0 1 1970 Nixon
1971 5.9 5.9 6 5.9 5.9 5.9 6 6.1 6 5.8 6 6 5.95 0.97 54 44 1.23 255 180 1.42 0 1 1971 Nixon
1972 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.60 -0.35 54 44 1.23 255 180 1.42 0 1 1972 Nixon
1973 4.9 5 4.9 5 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.86 -0.74 56 42 1.33 242 192 1.26 0 1 1973 Nixon
1974 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.9 6 6.6 7.2 5.64 0.78 56 42 1.33 242 192 1.26 0 1 1974 Nixon
1975 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 9 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.48 2.83 61 37 1.65 291 144 2.02 0 1 1975 Nixon
1976 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.70 -0.78 61 37 1.65 291 144 2.02 0 1 1976 Nixon
1977 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7 7.2 6.9 7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.4 7.05 -0.65 61 38 1.61 292 143 2.04 1 0 1977 Carter
1978 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 6 5.9 6.2 5.9 6 5.8 5.9 6 6.07 -0.98 61 38 1.61 292 143 2.04 1 0 1978 Carter
1979 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 6 5.9 6 5.9 6 5.85 -0.22 58 41 1.41 277 158 1.75 1 0 1979 Carter
1980 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.9 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.18 1.33 58 41 1.41 277 158 1.75 1 0 1980 Carter
1981 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.5 7.62 0.44 46 53 0.87 242 192 1.26 0 1 1981 Reagan
1982 8.6 8.9 9 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.8 9.71 2.09 46 53 0.87 242 192 1.26 0 1 1982 Reagan
1983 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.3 9.60 -0.11 46 54 0.85 269 166 1.62 0 1 1983 Reagan
1984 8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.51 -2.09 46 54 0.85 269 166 1.62 0 1 1984 Reagan
1985 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.1 7 7 7.19 -0.32 47 53 0.89 253 182 1.39 0 1 1985 Reagan
1986 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7 6.9 7 7 6.9 6.6 7.00 -0.19 47 53 0.89 253 182 1.39 0 1 1986 Reagan
1987 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6 5.9 6 5.8 5.7 6.18 -0.82 55 45 1.22 258 177 1.46 0 1 1987 Reagan
1988 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.49 -0.68 55 45 1.22 258 177 1.46 0 1 1988 Reagan
1989 5.4 5.2 5 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.26 -0.23 55 45 1.22 260 175 1.49 0 1 1989 Bush
1990 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.3 5.62 0.36 55 45 1.22 260 175 1.49 0 1 1990 Bush
1991 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7 7 7.3 6.85 1.23 56 44 1.27 267 167 1.60 0 1 1991 Bush
1992 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.49 0.64 56 44 1.27 267 167 1.60 0 1 1992 Bush
1993 7.3 7.1 7 7.1 7.1 7 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.91 -0.58 57 43 1.33 258 176 1.47 1 0 1993 Clinton
1994 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5 6.10 -0.81 57 43 1.33 258 176 1.47 1 0 1994 Clinton
1995 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.59 -0.51 48 52 0.92 204 230 0.89 1 0 1995 Clinton
1996 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.41 -0.18 48 52 0.92 204 230 0.89 1 0 1996 Clinton
1997 5.3 5.3 5.2 5 4.9 5 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.93 -0.48 45 52 0.87 207 226 0.92 1 0 1997 Clinton
1998 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.50 -0.43 45 52 0.87 207 226 0.92 1 0 1998 Clinton
1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.23 -0.27 45 52 0.87 211 223 0.95 1 0 1999 Clinton
2000 4 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.1 4 4 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.01 -0.22 45 52 0.87 211 223 0.95 1 0 2000 Clinton
(Back to top of data tables)
(Back to the top of Unemployment)
(Back to Economy and Political Parties)
(Back to Politics)