U.S. Business Cycles and Political Parties

L. David Roper (roperld@vt.edu)

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(Go to data tables at bottom.)

These data are taken from http://www.nber.org/cycles.html.
This shows the U. S. business cycles' expansion and contraction times for different presidential administrations and for different values of the Democratic Control Index. Note that the expansion times are generally longer and and the contractions times are generally shorter during democratic administrations and control.
This table shows the average business-cycles' expansion and contraction times per year for Democratic and Republican presidents. Note the larger expansion times and smaller contraction times for Democratic presidents compared to Republican presidents. Also note that Republican presidents had 14 years out of the 28 years in power since Franklin Roosevelt with contractions, whereas Democratic presidents only had 6 years with contractions out of 28 years in power.
Democrat Average Expansion (months/year) Republican Average Expansion (months/year) Democrat Average Contraction (months/year) Republican Average Contraction (months/year)
All presidents since 1867
10 9 6 8
52 years of 56 65 years of 78 21 years of 56 48 years of 78
Presidents after Franklin Roosevelt
11 10 5 6
28 years of 28 27 years of 28 6 years of 28 14 years of 28
Total=304 months Total=258 months Total=32 months Total=78 months
Ratio=D/R=1.18 Ratio=D/R=0.410 or 1/Ratio=2.44
Average=10.9 months/year Average=9.6 months/year Average=1.1 months/year Average=2.8 months/year
Correlation Coefficients President Democrat Democrat Control Index Bipartisan Control Index This table shows the correlation coefficients for all presidents, the Democrat Control Index and the Bipartisan Control Index since 1867. Note the positive correlation between Democratic control and long expansion times and the anti-correlation between Democratic control and long contraction times. Also, note the greater positive correlation for Democratic control than for bipartisan control for expansion times and slightly larger negative correlation for Democratic control than for bipartisan control for contraction times.
Expansion (months) 0.210 0.245 0.164
Contraction (months) -0.150 -0.164 -0.151
Correlation Coefficients President Democrat Democrat Control Index Bipartisan Control Index This table shows the correlation coefficients for presidents and the Democrat Control Index and the Bipartisan Control Index since Franklin Roosevelt. Note the positive correlation between Democratic control and long expansion times and very small positive correlation between Democratic control and long contraction times. Also, note that the correlation for Democratic control is larger than for bipartisan control for expansion times.
Expansion (months) 0.210 0.164 0.032
Contraction (months) -0.031 0.030 -0.098

The following table and graph shows the business-cycles contraction and expansion times per term for presidents since Franklin Roosevelt:

President Term Performance (months/term):
Business Cycles Contractions Business Cycles Expansions
President Months/Term President Months/Term Expansions-Times Fraction
Clinton 0 Clinton 48 1.0
Kennedy/Johnson 0.5 Kennedy/Johnson 47.5 0.99
Carter 6 Carter 42 0.88
Reagan 8 Reagan 40 0.83
Bush, GHW 8 Bush, GHW 40 0.83
Truman 12.5 Truman 35.5 0.74
Eisenhower 13.5 Eisenhower 34.5 0.72
Nixon/Ford 13.5 Nixon/Ford 34.5 0.72
This graph shows the fraction of the time that had business cycle expansions during the presidential terms. Of the four Democratic presidents, three (Clinton, Kennedy/Johnson and Carter) had the best performance. Of the four Republican presidents, two (Nixon/Ford and Eisenhower) had the worst performance.

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The Democratic Control Index is defined as
  • 7=Democratic party has presidency and majorities in both the Senate and House.
  • 6=Democratic party has presidency and majority in the House.
  • 5=Democratic party has presidency and majority in the Senate.
  • 4=Democratic party has presidency only.
  • 3=Democratic party has majority in the House and Senate, but not the presidency.
  • 2=Democratic party has majority in the House only and not the presidency.
  • 1=Democratic party has majority in the Senate only and not the presidency.
  • 0=Democratic party is in minority in both the Senate and the House and does not have the presidency.
A diagram showing the Democratic Party Control Index:
Democratic Control Democratic Party Control Index Republican Control
nothing 0 President, House & Senate
Senate 1 President & House
House 2 President & Senate
House & Senate 3 President
President 4 House & Senate
President & Senate 5 House
President & House 6 Senate
President, House & Senate 7 nothing

Does Republican Control Guarantee More Recession? Letter to Editor of The Roanoke Times 8 Nov 2002

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Data Table

These are the data used in the calculations above.
U. S. Business Cycles http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
Year
President Democrat
Democrat Control Index
Contraction (months)
Expansion (months)
President
1867
0
0
11
1
Johnson
1868
0
0
12
Johnson
1869
0
0
5
7
Grant
1870
0
0
11
1
Grant
1871
0
0
12
Grant
1872
0
0
12
Grant
1873
0
0
3
9
Grant
1874
0
0
12
Grant
1875
0
2
12
Grant
1876
0
2
12
Grant
1877
0
2
12
Hayes
1878
0
2
12
Hayes
1879
0
3
2
10
Hayes
1880
0
3
12
Hayes
1881
0
0.5
12
Garfield
1882
0
0.5
10
2
Arthur
1883
0
2
12
Arthur
1884
0
2
12
Arthur
1885
1
6
4
8
Cleveland
1886
1
6
12
Cleveland
1887
1
6
10
2
Cleveland
1888
1
6
3
9
Cleveland
1889
0
0
12
Harrison
1890
0
0
6
6
Harrison
1891
0
2
4
8
Harrison
1892
0
2
12
Harrison
1893
1
7
12
Cleveland
1894
1
7
5
7
Cleveland
1895
1
4
1
11
Cleveland
1896
1
4
12
Cleveland
1897
0
0
5
7
McKinley
1898
0
0
12
McKinley
1899
0
0
7
5
McKinley
1900
0
0
11
1
McKinley
1901
0
0
12
RooseveltT
1902
0
0
4
8
RooseveltT
1903
0
0
12
RooseveltT
1904
0
0
7
5
RooseveltT
1905
0
0
12
RooseveltT
1906
0
0
12
RooseveltT
1907
0
0
8
4
RooseveltT
1908
0
0
5
7
RooseveltT
1909
0
0
12
Taft
1910
0
0
12
Taft
1911
0
2
12
Taft
1912
0
2
12
Taft
1913
1
7
12
Wilson
1914
1
7
11
1
Wilson
1915
1
7
12
Wilson
1916
1
7
12
Wilson
1917
1
5
12
Wilson
1918
1
5
5
7
Wilson
1919
1
4
2
10
Wilson
1920
1
4
12
Wilson
1921
0
0
6
6
Harding
1922
0
0
12
Harding
1923
0
0
8
4
Harding/Coolidge
1924
0
0
6
6
Coolidge
1925
0
0
12
Coolidge
1926
0
0
3
9
Coolidge
1927
0
0
10
2
Coolidge
1928
0
0
12
Coolidge
1929
0
0
5
7
Hoover
1930
0
0
12
Hoover
1931
0
0
12
Hoover
1932
0
0
12
Hoover
1933
1
7
2
10
RooseveltF
1934
1
7
12
RooseveltF
1935
1
7
12
RooseveltF
1936
1
7
12
RooseveltF
1937
1
7
8
4
RooseveltF
1938
1
7
5
7
RooseveltF
1939
1
7
12
RooseveltF
1940
1
7
12
RooseveltF
1941
1
7
12
RooseveltF
1942
1
7
12
RooseveltF
1943
1
7
12
RooseveltF
1944
1
7
12
RooseveltF
1945
1
7
11
1
RooseveltF/Truman
1946
1
7
3
9
Truman
1947
1
4
12
Truman
1948
1
4
2
10
Truman
1949
1
7
9
3
Truman
1950
1
7
12
Truman
1951
1
7
12
Truman
1952
1
7
12
Truman
1953
0
0
6
6
Eisenhower
1954
0
0
4
8
Eisenhower
1955
0
3
12
Eisenhower
1956
0
3
12
Eisenhower
1957
0
3
5
7
Eisenhower
1958
0
3
3
9
Eisenhower
1959
0
3
12
Eisenhower
1960
0
3
9
3
Eisenhower
1961
1
7
1
11
Kennedy
1962
1
7
12
Kennedy/Johnson
1963
1
7
12
Johnson
1964
1
7
12
Johnson
1965
1
7
12
Johnson
1966
1
7
12
Johnson
1967
1
7
12
Johnson
1968
1
7
12
Johnson
1969
0
3
1
11
Nixon
1970
0
3
10
2
Nixon
1971
0
3
12
Nixon
1972
0
3
12
Nixon
1973
0
3
2
10
Nixon
1974
0
3
12
Nixon
1975
0
3
2
10
Nixon
1976
0
3
12
Nixon
1977
1
7
12
Carter
1978
1
7
12
Carter
1979
1
7
12
Carter
1980
1
7
6
6
Carter
1981
0
2
6
6
Reagan
1982
0
2
10
2
Reagan
1983
0
2
12
Reagan
1984
0
2
12
Reagan
1985
0
2
12
Reagan
1986
0
2
12
Reagan
1987
0
3
12
Reagan
1988
0
3
12
Reagan
1989
0
3
12
BushGHW
1990
0
3
6
6
BushGHW
1991
0
3
2
10
BushGHW
1992
0
3
12
BushGHW
1993
1
7
12
Clinton
1994
1
7
12
Clinton
1995
1
4
12
Clinton
1996
1
4
12
Clinton
1997
1
4
12
Clinton
1998
1
4
12
Clinton
1999
1
4
12
Clinton
2000
1
4
12
Clinton
2001
0
0
8
4
BushGW

2002
0
0
12
BushGW
2003
0
0
12
BushGW
2004
0
0
12
BushGW
2005
0
0
12
BushGW
2006
0
0
12
BushGW
2007
0
0
12
BushGW
2008
BushGW