Proposed Coles Hill Uranium Mine
Pittsylvania County Virginia

L. David Roper
2 July, 2016

When a new mine is proposed for an area, the company that is proposing the mine is obligated to present an estimated depletion curve for the mine. That is, a curve should be presented that shows estimates of how fast the mineral is expected to be extracted from the mine, when the extraction will peak and how fast extraction will decline. Such information is needed so that jurisdictions can better know the timing and magnitude of expected taxes and of needed cleanups due to accidents and cessation of mining.

The company that has proposed a uranium mine in Pittsylvania County Virginia has presented a study that gives some very rough estimates (p.11) of the mine's future as follows:

One can use linear equations to fit a quadratic function to the U3O8 concentration in the ore such that the highest concentration, 0.126%, occurs at the beginning of mining, year 1, and the lowest concentration, 0.079%, occurs at the end of mining, year 35, and the average concentration is 0.0965%:

These concentrations can be used to calculate the U3O8 extracted as a function of year:

The red curve is calculated by multiplying the concentration versus year times the amount of ore given in the study for each year.

The author of this article thinks that the large drop from year 25 to year 26 is unrealistic; in fact, the total amount of U3O8 extracted is 27,340 tons instead of 32,990 tons calculated above. So, the blue curve is the result of smoothing out the U3O8 extraction such that the total amount extracted over the 35 years is ~32,990 tons. The green curve is a Verhulst depletion function fitted to the blue curve.

The author of this article thinks that the fast rise in the early years is unrealistic. The purple curve is the author's estimate of a more realistic depletion curve such that the total amount extracted over the 35 years is ~32,990 tons. Of course, the mining may extend on past the 35 years, as shown here:

If the mining could be extended out to 75 years by this depletion curve, the amount of U3O8 to be extracted would be ~44,180 tons.

Of course, circumstances such as nuclear accidents, wars and economic conditions would likely cause fluctuations from a smooth depletion curve, including major multiple peaks.

Uranium Prices

The price ($/lb) for U3O8 versus year had a severe downturn in 2012:

It seem unlikely that the downturn will end soon. It is due to the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011 and the subsequent decisions by Germany, Japan and France to diminish their dependence on nuclear energy in the future.

Using the purple curve in the second graph as the most realistic prediction for extraction of U3O8 by the proposed Coles Hill mine and three realistic future prices of $40/lb, $30/lb and $20/lb the following curves show predictions for sales of U3O8 from the mine:

The total sales in billions (10^9) of dollars after 35 years and 75 years would be:


This is far below the $7 billion dollars mentioned in the media.


L. David Roper interdisciplinary studies