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The auto accident death rate (number of deaths per billion miles driven) varies greatly among the states in the United States. (See table at end for 1999 rates.)
An interesting question to ask is: Is there any correlation between the auto accident death rate and the strength of the two political parties in the states?
I compared different state's auto-accident-death-rate (ADR) data for 1999 with the results of the 1996 presidential election for each state. (See table at end for votes in the 1996 election.) A correlation calculation yielded the following:
Correlation |
Rate |
Democrat vote |
-0.512 |
Republican vote |
+0.602 |
That is, the Democratic votes for the states had a 51% negative correlation with increasing ADR and the Republican votes had a 60% positive correlation. States with high auto accident death rate vote much more Republican than Democratic and vice versa.
|
| This is a plot of the auto accident death rate (ADR) sorted by rank of the states compared to the Democratic votes and the Republican votes. (See table at end for the data.) Also shown are linear fits to the two votes. This shows visually the positive correlation of ADR with the Republican vote and the negative correlation of ADR with the Democratic vote. Note that the three highest ADR states are definitely Republican and the seven lowest ADR states are definitely Democratic. Also, all but one of the lowest twenty states are definitely Democratic. |
What can one conclude from these results? Whatever factors cause the large disparity for auto accident death rates between the various states also cause those states to tend to vote Republican. I believe that the main factors are:
My Republican native state, Oklahoma (rate=17.4), ranked 34 of 50 and my Republican adopted state, Virginia (rate=11.9), ranked 8 of 50 for increasing auto accident death rate in 1999.
| U.S. auto accident deaths in 1999 | ||||||
| State | Deaths | Miles Driven | Deaths/Miles | Democrat | Republican | Rank |
| Massachusetts | 414 | 51,820 | 8.0 | 61.5% | 28.1% | 1 |
| Connecticut | 301 | 29,926 | 10.1 | 52.8% | 34.7% | 2 |
| Rhode Island | 88 | 8,283 | 10.6 | 59.7% | 26.8% | 3 |
| New Jersey | 727 | 65,540 | 11.1 | 53.7% | 35.9% | 4 |
| Delaware | 100 | 8,542 | 11.7 | 51.8% | 36.6% | 5 |
| New Hampshire | 141 | 11,894 | 11.9 | 49.6% | 39.6% | 6 |
| California | 3,559 | 300,066 | 11.9 | 51.1% | 38.2% | 7 |
| Virginia | 877 | 73,904 | 11.9 | 45.1% | 47.1% | 8 |
| Oregon | 414 | 34,680 | 11.9 | 47.2% | 39.1% | 9 |
| Maryland | 590 | 49,126 | 12.0 | 54.3% | 38.3% | 10 |
| Washington | 634 | 52,714 | 12.0 | 49.8% | 37.3% | 11 |
| Hawaii | 98 | 8,116 | 12.1 | 56.9% | 31.6% | 12 |
| Minnesota | 625 | 51,410 | 12.2 | 51.1% | 35.0% | 13 |
| New York | 1,548 | 126,491 | 12.2 | 58.3% | 30.0% | 14 |
| Maine | 181 | 14,143 | 12.8 | 51.6% | 30.8% | 15 |
| Wisconsin | 745 | 56,960 | 13.1 | 48.8% | 38.5% | 16 |
| Vermont | 90 | 6,867 | 13.1 | 53.4% | 31.1% | 17 |
| Ohio | 1,430 | 105,487 | 13.6 | 47.4% | 41.0% | 18 |
| Illinois | 1,456 | 102,394 | 14.2 | 54.3% | 36.8% | 19 |
| Michigan | 1,382 | 95,644 | 14.4 | 51.7% | 38.5% | 20 |
| Indiana | 1,013 | 70,041 | 14.5 | 41.6% | 47.1% | 21 |
| Pennsylvania | 1,549 | 102,014 | 15.2 | 49.2% | 40.0% | 22 |
| Georgia | 1,508 | 98,859 | 15.3 | 45.8% | 47.0% | 23 |
| Colorado | 626 | 40,732 | 15.4 | 44.4% | 45.8% | 24 |
| Utah | 360 | 22,044 | 16.3 | 33.3% | 54.4% | 25 |
| Nebraska | 295 | 18,011 | 16.4 | 35.0% | 53.7% | 26 |
| North Dakota | 119 | 7,262 | 16.4 | 40.1% | 46.9% | 27 |
| Missouri | 1,094 | 66,735 | 16.4 | 47.5% | 41.2% | 28 |
| Texas | 3,518 | 210,874 | 16.7 | 43.8% | 48.8% | 29 |
| Alaska | 76 | 4,545 | 16.7 | 33.3% | 50.8% | 30 |
| Iowa | 490 | 29,138 | 16.8 | 50.3% | 39.9% | 31 |
| Kentucky | 814 | 47,816 | 17.0 | 45.8% | 44.9% | 32 |
| North Carolina | 1,505 | 87,759 | 17.1 | 44.0% | 48.7% | 33 |
| Oklahoma | 739 | 42,569 | 17.4 | 40.4% | 48.3% | 34 |
| South Dakota | 150 | 8,244 | 18.2 | 43.0% | 46.5% | 35 |
| Kansas | 537 | 27,699 | 19.4 | 36.1% | 54.3% | 36 |
| Tennessee | 1,285 | 64,755 | 19.8 | 48.0% | 45.6% | 37 |
| Idaho | 278 | 13,976 | 19.9 | 33.6% | 52.2% | 38 |
| Nevada | 350 | 17,391 | 20.1 | 43.9% | 42.9% | 39 |
| Alabama | 1,138 | 56,165 | 20.3 | 43.2% | 50.1% | 40 |
| Florida | 2,918 | 141,903 | 20.6 | 48.0% | 42.3% | 41 |
| New Mexico | 460 | 22,362 | 20.6 | 49.2% | 41.9% | 42 |
| Arkansas | 604 | 29,247 | 20.7 | 53.7% | 36.8% | 43 |
| West Virginia | 395 | 19,033 | 20.8 | 51.5% | 36.8% | 44 |
| Arizona | 1,024 | 46,829 | 21.9 | 46.5% | 44.3% | 45 |
| Montana | 220 | 9,835 | 22.4 | 41.3% | 44.1% | 46 |
| Louisiana | 924 | 41,205 | 22.4 | 52.0% | 39.9% | 47 |
| South Carolina | 1,065 | 44,146 | 24.1 | 44.0% | 49.8% | 48 |
| Wyoming | 189 | 7,797 | 24.2 | 36.8% | 49.8% | 49 |
| Mississippi | 927 | 34,880 | 26.6 | 44.1% | 49.2% | 50 |
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