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The abortion rate (number/1000) varies greatly among the states in the United States. (See table at end for 1996 rates.)
An interesting question to ask is: Is there any correlation between the abortion rate and the strength of the two political parties in the states?
I compared different state's abortion rate (AR) data for 1996 with the results of the 1996 presidential election for each state. (See table at end for votes in the 1996 election.) A correlation calculation yielded the following:
| Correlation | Rate |
| Democrat vote | +0.457 |
| Republican vote | -0.421 |
That is, the Democratic votes for the states had a 46% positive correlation with increasing AR and the Republican votes had a 42% negative correlation. States with high abortion rate vote much more Democratic than Republican and vice versa.
|
| This is a plot of the abortion rate (AR) sorted by rank of the states compared to the Democratic votes and the Republican votes. (See table at end for the data.) Also shown are linear fits to the two votes. This shows visually the negative correlation of AR with the Republican vote and the positive correlation of AR with the Democratic vote. The highest six states are definitely Democratic. Note the exceptionally high rates for New York (8.4) and California (8.5). |
What can one conclude from these results? Whatever factors cause the large disparity for abortions rates between the various states also cause those states to tend to vote Republican. I believe that the main factors are:
My Republican native state, Oklahoma (rate=2.1), ranked 9 of 50 and my Republican adopted state, Virginia (rate=3.7), ranked 33 of 50 for increasing abortion rate in 1996.
| U.S. abortions 1996 | 1996 election | |||||
| State | Legal Abortions | Population | Abortions/1000 | Democrat | Republican | Rank |
| Wyoming | 208 | 479602 | 0.4 | 36.8% | 49.8% | 1 |
| Idaho | 1022 | 1251700 | 0.8 | 33.6% | 52.2% | 2 |
| South Dakota | 901 | 733133 | 1.2 | 43.0% | 46.5% | 3 |
| West Virginia | 2470 | 1806928 | 1.4 | 51.5% | 36.8% | 4 |
| Mississippi | 4206 | 2768619 | 1.5 | 44.1% | 49.2% | 5 |
| Utah | 3639 | 2129836 | 1.7 | 33.3% | 54.4% | 6 |
| Kentucky | 7000 | 3960825 | 1.8 | 45.8% | 44.9% | 7 |
| New Hampshire | 2300 | 1201134 | 1.9 | 49.6% | 39.6% | 8 |
| Oklahoma | 6769 | 3358044 | 2.0 | 40.4% | 48.3% | 9 |
| North Dakota | 1291 | 633666 | 2.0 | 40.1% | 46.9% | 10 |
| Maine | 2615 | 1253040 | 2.1 | 51.6% | 30.8% | 11 |
| Missouri | 11629 | 5468338 | 2.1 | 47.5% | 41.2% | 12 |
| Indiana | 13341 | 5942901 | 2.2 | 41.6% | 47.1% | 13 |
| Arizona | 11016 | 4778332 | 2.3 | 46.5% | 44.3% | 14 |
| Arkansas | 5882 | 2551373 | 2.3 | 53.7% | 36.8% | 15 |
| Maryland | 12363 | 5171634 | 2.4 | 54.3% | 38.3% | 16 |
| Colorado | 9710 | 4056133 | 2.4 | 44.4% | 45.8% | 17 |
| South Carolina | 9326 | 3885736 | 2.4 | 44.0% | 49.8% | 18 |
| Wisconsin | 13673 | 5250446 | 2.6 | 48.8% | 38.5% | 19 |
| Iowa | 7602 | 2869413 | 2.6 | 50.3% | 39.9% | 20 |
| Louisiana | 11865 | 4372035 | 2.7 | 52.0% | 39.9% | 21 |
| New Mexico | 5033 | 1739844 | 2.9 | 49.2% | 41.9% | 22 |
| Minnesota | 14193 | 4775508 | 3.0 | 51.1% | 35.0% | 23 |
| Michigan | 30208 | 9863775 | 3.1 | 51.7% | 38.5% | 24 |
| Nebraska | 5214 | 1666028 | 3.1 | 35.0% | 53.7% | 25 |
| Montana | 2763 | 882779 | 3.1 | 41.3% | 44.1% | 26 |
| Alabama | 13826 | 4369862 | 3.2 | 43.2% | 50.1% | 27 |
| Pennsylvania | 38004 | 11994016 | 3.2 | 49.2% | 40.0% | 28 |
| Ohio | 36530 | 11256654 | 3.2 | 47.4% | 41.0% | 29 |
| Tennessee | 17989 | 5483535 | 3.3 | 48.0% | 45.6% | 30 |
| Alaska | 2139 | 619500 | 3.5 | 33.3% | 50.8% | 31 |
| Vermont | 2139 | 593740 | 3.6 | 53.4% | 31.1% | 32 |
| Virginia | 25770 | 6872912 | 3.7 | 45.1% | 47.1% | 33 |
| Nevada | 6965 | 1809253 | 3.8 | 43.9% | 42.9% | 34 |
| New Jersey | 31860 | 8143412 | 3.9 | 53.7% | 35.9% | 35 |
| Kansas | 10685 | 2654052 | 4.0 | 36.1% | 54.3% | 36 |
| Hawaii | 4916 | 1185497 | 4.1 | 56.9% | 31.6% | 37 |
| Oregon | 13767 | 3316154 | 4.2 | 47.2% | 39.1% | 38 |
| Connecticut | 14094 | 3282031 | 4.3 | 52.8% | 34.7% | 39 |
| North Carolina | 33554 | 7650789 | 4.4 | 44.0% | 48.7% | 40 |
| Illinois | 53613 | 12128370 | 4.4 | 54.3% | 36.8% | 41 |
| Washington | 26138 | 5756361 | 4.5 | 49.8% | 37.3% | 42 |
| Texas | 91470 | 20044141 | 4.6 | 43.8% | 48.8% | 43 |
| Georgia | 35790 | 7788240 | 4.6 | 45.8% | 47.0% | 44 |
| Massachusetts | 29293 | 6175169 | 4.7 | 61.5% | 28.1% | 45 |
| Florida | 80040 | 15111244 | 5.3 | 48.0% | 42.3% | 46 |
| Rhode Island | 5437 | 990819 | 5.5 | 59.7% | 26.8% | 47 |
| Delaware | 4482 | 753538 | 5.9 | 51.8% | 36.6% | 48 |
| New York | 152991 | 18196601 | 8.4 | 58.3% | 30.0% | 49 |
| California | 280180 | 33145121 | 8.5 | 51.1% | 38.2% | 50 |
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