Wages and Political Parties

L. David Roper (roperld@vt.edu)

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Hourly Wages:

The U. S. hourly earnings in private industry for1964-2000 are available at http://stats.bls.gov/top20.html#OCWC , whose values are shown in the table at the bottom of this page.

This shows the U.S. average hourly earnings in constant 1982 dollars for the years 1964-2000 plotted with the presidential administrations and the Democrat control index. Note the precipitous declines during the Republican administrations of Nixon and Reagan/Bush and the Democratic Carter administration.
This shows the % change in the U.S. average hourly earnings in constant 1982 dollars for the years 1964-2000 plotted with the presidential administrations and the Democrat control index. Note the precipitous declines during the Republican administrations of Nixon and Reagan/Bush and the Democratic Carter administration.

The following table shows the correlation coefficients for the average hourly earnings and various measures of Democratic Party control. Note the positive correlations for Senate control and presidential control.

Correlation coefficients:
Average Hourly Earnings: % Change
Senate Dem/Rep 0.13
House Dem/Rep -0.12
President (Dem=1, Rep=0) 0.16
Democrat Control 0.04

Minimum Wages:

The U. S. minimum wage for the years 1960-1997 are available at http://epinet.org/datazone/data/minimumwage.xls, whose values are shown in the table at the bottom of this page..

This shows the U.S. minimum wage in constant 1997 dollars for the years 1960-1997 plotted with the presidential administrations and the Democrat control index.. Note the precipitous declines during the Republican administrations of Nixon and Reagan/Bush.
This shows the U.S. minimum wage in constant 1997 dollars for the years 1960-1997 plotted with the Democrat control index. Note the precipitous declines during the Republican administrations of Nixon and Reagan/Bush.

The following table shows the correlation coefficients for the minimum wage and various measures of Democratic Party control. Note the sizeable positive correlation for all measures except House control.

Correlation coefficients:
Minimum Wage: % Change
Senate Dem/Rep 0.24
House Dem/Rep -0.14
President (Dem=1, Rep=0) 0.31
Democrat Control 0.28

Presidential Administrations and Democratic Control:

This shows the average % change in the U.S.minimum wage and the average hourly earnings for the presidential administrations.
This shows the average % change in the U.S.minimum wage and the average hourly earnings for the political parties of the presidential administrations. Notice in the graph above that the Reagan administrations made a huge negative contribution to the Republican administrations.
This shows the average % change in the U.S.minimum wage and the average hourly earnings for the Democratic control indices for years 1964-1997. Note that the highest positive value for both is when the president is Democratic and the congress is Republican.

Democratic Control Index:

The Democratic Control Index is defined as
  • 7=Democratic party has presidency and majorities in both the Senate and House.
  • 6=Democratic party has presidency and majority in the House.
  • 5=Democratic party has presidency and majority in the Senate.
  • 4=Democratic party has presidency only.
  • 3=Democratic party has majority in the House and Senate, but not the presidency.
  • 2=Democratic party has majority in the House only and not the presidency.
  • 1=Democratic party has majority in the Senate only and not the presidency.
  • 0=Democratic party is in minority in both the Senate and the House and does not have the presidency.
A diagram showing the Democratic Party Control Index:
Democratic Control Democratic Party Control Index Republican Control
nothing 0 President, House & Senate
Senate 1 President & House
House 2 President & Senate
House & Senate 3 President
President 4 House & Senate
President & Senate 5 House
President & House 6 Senate
President, House & Senate 7 nothing


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Data Tables:

U. S. average Hourly Earnings in Private Industry (1982 $) for 1964-2000 are available at http://stats.bls.gov/top20.html#OCWC .

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Hourly Earnings
1964 7.23 7.26 7.26 7.29 7.3 7.3 7.33 7.39 7.37 7.34 7.38 7.41 7.32
1965 7.38 7.45 7.48 7.45 7.49 7.47 7.5 7.55 7.53 7.59 7.6 7.58 7.51
1966 7.58 7.57 7.57 7.58 7.61 7.62 7.65 7.58 7.62 7.62 7.63 7.63 7.61
1967 7.69 7.67 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.72 7.75 7.76 7.74 7.74 7.78 7.78 7.73
1968 7.8 7.8 7.84 7.87 7.88 7.89 7.89 7.91 7.94 7.92 7.96 7.97 7.89
1969 7.97 7.98 7.95 7.96 7.99 8 7.98 8.02 8 8.01 8.02 8.01 7.99
1970 7.99 8 8.01 7.97 8 8.01 8.02 8.05 8.03 8 8 8.01 8.01
1971 8.07 8.1 8.17 8.15 8.21 8.19 8.18 8.23 8.23 8.25 8.26 8.29 8.19
1972 8.43 8.41 8.47 8.51 8.52 8.5 8.5 8.55 8.56 8.59 8.59 8.62 8.52
1973 8.63 8.61 8.58 8.59 8.55 8.56 8.63 8.46 8.51 8.48 8.47 8.46 8.54
1974 8.39 8.35 8.31 8.29 8.31 8.35 8.3 8.28 8.25 8.24 8.15 8.16 8.28
1975 8.12 8.11 8.12 8.11 8.13 8.13 8.09 8.13 8.11 8.09 8.12 8.09 8.11
1976 8.1 8.16 8.18 8.18 8.22 8.23 8.24 8.27 8.26 8.27 8.31 8.32 8.23
1977 8.3 8.29 8.3 8.31 8.32 8.31 8.34 8.33 8.35 8.39 8.38 8.37 8.33
1978 8.42 8.42 8.42 8.45 8.42 8.41 8.41 8.4 8.42 8.39 8.39 8.38 8.41
1979 8.38 8.36 8.32 8.22 8.21 8.17 8.14 8.11 8.1 8.04 8.01 7.99 8.17
1980 7.9 7.88 7.82 7.79 7.75 7.74 7.76 7.77 7.76 7.76 7.75 7.73 7.78
1981 7.72 7.71 7.74 7.72 7.71 7.7 7.65 7.67 7.66 7.65 7.67 7.65 7.69
1982 7.69 7.69 7.72 7.72 7.71 7.64 7.64 7.66 7.66 7.65 7.68 7.74 7.68
1983 7.78 7.81 7.8 7.77 7.78 7.78 7.79 7.72 7.79 7.81 7.8 7.81 7.79
1984 7.81 7.8 7.82 7.85 7.82 7.84 7.83 7.77 7.77 7.75 7.78 7.79 7.80
1985 7.77 7.76 7.76 7.76 7.75 7.77 7.76 7.77 7.8 7.76 7.74 7.76 7.76
1986 7.71 7.76 7.82 7.85 7.85 7.83 7.83 7.84 7.81 7.83 7.85 7.83 7.82
1987 7.8 7.78 7.77 7.74 7.75 7.72 7.7 7.72 7.7 7.7 7.72 7.72 7.74
1988 7.72 7.7 7.69 7.7 7.71 7.69 7.67 7.65 7.66 7.67 7.65 7.67 7.68
1989 7.67 7.68 7.65 7.62 7.59 7.59 7.6 7.62 7.63 7.62 7.62 7.63 7.63
1990 7.56 7.57 7.56 7.56 7.58 7.57 7.55 7.49 7.46 7.43 7.43 7.43 7.52
1991 7.43 7.43 7.44 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.47 7.47 7.46 7.45 7.44 7.44 7.45
1992 7.43 7.43 7.43 7.43 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.4 7.4 7.39 7.39 7.42
1993 7.39 7.38 7.41 7.39 7.38 7.39 7.39 7.39 7.4 7.38 7.39 7.39 7.39
1994 7.41 7.42 7.4 7.41 7.41 7.39 7.38 7.37 7.37 7.39 7.38 7.39 7.39
1995 7.38 7.38 7.38 7.37 7.37 7.38 7.4 7.4 7.41 7.41 7.42 7.42 7.39
1996 7.42 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.43 7.43 7.45 7.44 7.44 7.45 7.46 7.43
1997 7.47 7.47 7.49 7.5 7.53 7.54 7.55 7.57 7.58 7.6 7.63 7.65 7.55
1998 7.66 7.69 7.71 7.73 7.74 7.75 7.76 7.78 7.79 7.8 7.81 7.82 7.75
1999 7.83 7.84 7.86 7.83 7.86 7.88 7.88 7.87 7.86 7.87 7.87 7.87 7.86
2000 7.88 7.87 7.83 7.87 7.87 7.85 7.86 7.9 7.87 7.89(p) 7.91(p) p : preliminary

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The U. S. minimum wage for the years 1960-1997 are available at http://epinet.org/datazone/data/minimumwage.xls:

Minimum Wage Current Dollars 1997 Dollars Senate D/R House D/R President (Dem=1, Rep=0) Democrat Control Year President
1960 $1.00 $4.99 1.88 1.85 0 3 1960 Eisenhower
1961 $1.15 $5.80 1.78 1.50 1 7 1961 Kennedy
1962 $1.15 $5.74 1.78 1.50 1 7 1962 Kennedy/Johnson
1963 $1.25 $6.16 2.03 1.47 1 7 1963 Johnson
1964 $1.25 $6.08 2.03 1.47 1 7 1964 Johnson
1965 $1.25 $5.98 2.13 2.11 1 7 1965 Johnson
1966 $1.25 $5.82 2.13 2.11 1 7 1966 Johnson
1967 $1.40 $6.19 1.78 1.33 1 7 1967 Johnson
1968 $1.60 $6.81 1.78 1.33 1 7 1968 Johnson
1969 $1.60 $6.52 1.38 1.27 0 3 1969 Nixon
1970 $1.60 $6.22 1.38 1.27 0 3 1970 Nixon
1971 $1.60 $5.96 1.23 1.42 0 3 1971 Nixon
1972 $1.60 $5.78 1.23 1.42 0 3 1972 Nixon
1973 $1.60 $5.44 1.33 1.26 0 3 1973 Nixon
1974 $2.00 $6.18 1.33 1.26 0 3 1974 Nixon
1975 $2.10 $6.00 1.65 2.02 0 3 1975 Nixon
1976 $2.30 $6.21 1.65 2.02 0 3 1976 Nixon
1977 $2.30 $5.84 1.61 2.04 1 7 1977 Carter
1978 $2.65 $6.30 1.61 2.04 1 7 1978 Carter
1979 $2.90 $6.29 1.41 1.75 1 7 1979 Carter
1980 $3.10 $6.05 1.41 1.75 1 7 1980 Carter
1981 $3.35 $5.97 0.87 1.26 0 2 1981 Reagan
1982 $3.35 $5.62 0.87 1.26 0 2 1982 Reagan
1983 $3.35 $5.40 0.85 1.62 0 2 1983 Reagan
1984 $3.35 $5.17 0.85 1.62 0 2 1984 Reagan
1985 $3.35 $5.00 0.89 1.39 0 2 1985 Reagan
1986 $3.35 $4.91 0.89 1.39 0 2 1986 Reagan
1987 $3.35 $4.73 1.22 1.46 0 3 1987 Reagan
1988 $3.35 $4.55 1.22 1.46 0 3 1988 Reagan
1989 $3.35 $4.34 1.22 1.49 0 3 1989 Bush
1990 $3.80 $4.67 1.22 1.49 0 3 1990 Bush
1991 $4.25 $5.01 1.27 1.60 0 3 1991 Bush
1992 $4.25 $4.85 1.27 1.60 0 3 1992 Bush
1993 $4.25 $4.72 1.33 1.47 1 7 1993 Clinton
1994 $4.25 $4.60 1.33 1.47 1 7 1994 Clinton
1995 $4.25 $4.48 0.92 0.89 1 4 1995 Clinton
1996 $4.75 $4.86 0.92 0.89 1 4 1996 Clinton
1997 $5.15 $5.15 0.87 0.92 1 4 1997 Clinton

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