Party Control of U. S. Government

Party Control of U.S. Government

L. David Roper (roperld@vt.edu)

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Contents: Democrat Control Index | Democrat Control Variable | Bipartisan Control Index

We desire a way to quantify the control of the Democrat and Republican parties of the U.S. government.

Democrat Control Index

One way is to assign a Democrat Control Index:

7=Democratic party has presidency and majorities in both the Senate and House.
6=Democratic party has presidency and majority in the House. (The House is assumed more important than the Senate, because it more quickly changes to match the will of the electorate.)
5=Democratic party has presidency and majority in the Senate.
4=Democratic party has presidency only.
3=Democratic party has majority in the House and Senate, but not the presidency.
2=Democratic party has majority in the House only and not the presidency.
1=Democratic party has majority in the Senate only and not the presidency.
0=Democratic party is in minority in both the Senate and the House and does not have the presidency.

A diagram showing the Democratic Party Control Index:
Democratic Control	Democratic Party Control Index	Republican Control
nothing	0	President, House & Senate
Senate	1	President & House
House	2	President & Senate
House & Senate	3	President
President	4	House & Senate
President & Senate	5	House
President & House	6	Senate
President, House & Senate	7	nothing

Democrat Control Variable

Another way to quantify the control of the Democrat and Republican parties of the U.S. government is to assign a Democrat Control Variable is as follows:

P=	1 for Democrat president
	0 for Republican president

S=	fraction of Senate that is Democratic
H=	fraction of House that is Democratic

Then define the Democrat Control Variable as:

DCV=	P	for S<=¼ & H<=¼
	P+S-¼	for H<=¼ & ¼<S<¾
	P+H-¼	for S<=¼ & ¼<H<¾
	P+S+H-½	for ¼<S<¾ & ¼<H<¾
	P+H+¼	for S>=¾ & ¼<H<¾
	P+S+¼	for H>=¾ & ¼<S<¾
	P+1	for S>=¾ & H>=¾

The Excel formula for calculating the DCV is +K6+IF(AND(N6<0.25,O6<0.25),0,IF(AND(N6>0.75,O6>0.75),1, IF(N6<0.25,O6-0.25,IF(O6<0.25,N6-0.25,IF(N6>0.75,O6+0.25,IF(O6>0.75,N6+0.25,N6+O6-0.5)))))).

This assumes that Democrat control for the Senate or House has nill effect when the fraction is below ¼ and does not increase when the fraction is above ¾. It also assumes that full control of both houses of Congress is equivalent to presidency control. A cruder, but easier to calculate, DCV=P+½(S+H) assumes some power accrues even when a fraction is quite low.

The graphs below shows the Democrat Control Index and the Democrat Control Variable for the years 1867-2000.

The graph above shows the Democrat Control Index and the Democrat Control Variable versus year.

The graph above shows the refined and crude Democrat Control Variables versus year.

The table below shows the Democrat Control Index and the Democrat Control Variable for the years 1867-2000.

Years	Democrat Control Index	Democrat Control Variable	Democrat Control Variable (crude)
1867	0	0.004	0.231
1868	0	0.004	0.231
1869	0	0.050	0.225
1870	0	0.050	0.225
1871	0	0.178	0.326
1872	0	0.178	0.326
1873	0	0.050	0.275
1874	0	0.050	0.275
1875	2	0.499	0.500
1876	2	0.499	0.500
1877	2	0.506	0.503
1878	2	0.506	0.503
1879	3	0.578	0.539
1880	3	0.578	0.539
1881	0.5	0.431	0.465
1882	0.5	0.431	0.465
1883	2	0.589	0.545
1884	2	0.589	0.545
1885	6	1.507	1.504
1886	6	1.507	1.504
1887	6	1.510	1.505
1888	6	1.510	1.505
1889	0	0.413	0.457
1890	0	0.413	0.457
1891	2	0.637	0.568
1892	2	0.637	0.568
1893	7	1.618	1.559
1894	7	1.618	1.559
1895	4	1.234	1.367
1896	4	1.234	1.367
1897	0	0.253	0.377
1898	0	0.253	0.377
1899	0	0.245	0.373
1900	0	0.245	0.373
1901	0	0.251	0.375
1902	0	0.251	0.375
1903	0	0.317	0.408
1904	0	0.317	0.408
1905	0	0.208	0.354
1906	0	0.208	0.354
1907	0	0.240	0.370
1908	0	0.240	0.370
1909	0	0.288	0.394
1910	0	0.288	0.394
1911	2	0.540	0.520
1912	2	0.540	0.520
1913	7	1.698	1.599
1914	7	1.698	1.599
1915	7	1.614	1.557
1916	7	1.614	1.557
1917	5	1.535	1.517
1918	5	1.535	1.517
1919	4	1.429	1.464
1920	4	1.429	1.464
1921	0	0.189	0.344
1922	0	0.189	0.344
1923	0	0.424	0.462
1924	0	0.424	0.462
1925	0	0.337	0.419
1926	0	0.337	0.419
1927	0	0.438	0.469
1928	0	0.438	0.469
1929	0	0.281	0.390
1930	0	0.281	0.390
1931	0	0.486	0.493
1932	0	0.486	0.493
1933	7	1.834	1.667
1934	7	1.834	1.667
1935	7	1.959	1.729
1936	7	1.959	1.729
1937	7	2.000	1.773
1938	7	2.000	1.773
1939	7	1.821	1.661
1940	7	1.821	1.661
1941	7	1.801	1.651
1942	7	1.801	1.651
1943	7	1.604	1.552
1944	7	1.604	1.552
1945	7	1.652	1.576
1946	7	1.652	1.576
1947	4	1.401	1.450
1948	4	1.401	1.450
1949	7	1.667	1.584
1950	7	1.667	1.584
1951	7	1.538	1.519
1952	7	1.538	1.519
1953	0	0.469	0.484
1954	0	0.469	0.484
1955	3	0.533	0.517
1956	3	0.533	0.517
1957	3	0.548	0.524
1958	3	0.548	0.524
1959	3	0.802	0.651
1960	3	0.802	0.651
1961	7	1.740	1.620
1962	7	1.740	1.620
1963	7	1.763	1.632
1964	7	1.763	1.632
1965	7	1.858	1.679
1966	7	1.858	1.679
1967	7	1.710	1.605
1968	7	1.710	1.605
1969	3	0.639	0.569
1970	3	0.639	0.569
1971	3	0.626	0.563
1972	3	0.626	0.563
1973	3	0.616	0.558
1974	3	0.616	0.558
1975	3	0.779	0.639
1976	3	0.779	0.639
1977	7	1.781	1.641
1978	7	1.781	1.641
1979	7	1.717	1.608
1980	7	1.717	1.608
1981	2	0.516	0.508
1982	2	0.516	0.508
1983	2	0.578	0.539
1984	2	0.578	0.539
1985	2	0.552	0.526
1986	2	0.552	0.526
1987	3	0.643	0.572
1988	3	0.643	0.572
1989	3	0.648	0.574
1990	3	0.648	0.574
1991	3	0.674	0.587
1992	3	0.674	0.587
1993	7	1.663	1.582
1994	7	1.663	1.582
1995	4	1.449	1.474
1996	4	1.449	1.474
1997	4	1.426	1.463
1998	4	1.426	1.463
1999	4	1.435	1.468
2000	4	1.435	1.468

Bipartisan Conrol Index

Perhaps an interesting aspect of party control is with regard to bipartisan control of the U.S. govenment. To allow such a study we define a Bipartisan Control Index (BCI):

Control Description	BCI
President only of either party	3
President & Senate of same party	2
President & House of same party	1
President & House & Senate of same party	0

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