Deaths Rate and Political Parties
L. David Roper(E-mail: roperld@vt.edu)

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The deaths rate (number of deaths per 100,000 people adjusted for age) varies greatly among the states in the United States. (See table at end for 1996-8 rates.)

An interesting question to ask is: Is there any correlation between the deaths rate and the strength of the two political parties in the states? At first thought of this question, I reasoned that the proclivity of the Republican party to not concern government about such matters might be balanced or overcome by the tendency of African Americans to vote Democratic, since the deaths rate for them is much higher than for others. I was surprised to get the results of such a study that are shown below.

I compared different state's deaths-rates (DR) data with the results of the 1996 presidential election for each state. (See table at end for votes in the 1996 election.) A correlation calculation yielded the following:

Correlation Rate
Democrat vote -0.071
Republican vote +0.250

That is, the Democratic votes for the states had a 7% negative correlation with increasing DR and the Republican votes had a 25% positive correlation. States with high deaths rate vote much more Republican than Democratic and vice versa.

This is a plot of the deaths rate (DR)sorted by rank of the states compared to the Democratic votes and the Republican votes. (See table at end for the data.) Also shown are linear fits to the two votes. This shows visually the positive correlation of DR with the Republican vote and the near-zero correlation of DR with the Democratic vote.

What can one conclude from these results? Whatever factors cause the large disparity for death rates between the various states also cause those states to tend to vote Republican. I believe that the main factors are:

My Republican native state, Oklahoma (rate=992), ranked 41 of 50 and my Republican adopted state, Virginia (rate=898), ranked 32 of 50 for increasing deaths rate in 2000.

Death Rates 2000 http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr49/nvsr49_12.pdf
Sorted by rate: 1996 Election
State Rate(/10^5,age adj) Democrat Republican Rank
Hawaii 666.9 56.9% 31.6% 1
California 765.7 51.1% 38.2% 2
North Dakota 766.9 40.1% 46.9% 3
Minnesota 767.2 51.1% 35.0% 4
Utah 786.7 33.3% 54.4% 5
Colorado 789.7 44.4% 45.8% 6
Nebraska 798.1 35.0% 53.7% 7
Connecticut 799.6 52.8% 34.7% 8
Iowa 802.9 50.3% 39.9% 9
Washington 807.2 49.8% 37.3% 10
New York 808.3 58.3% 30.0% 11
Idaho 811.7 33.6% 52.2% 12
South Dakota 813.5 43.0% 46.5% 13
Massachusetts 815.3 61.5% 28.1% 14
Rhode Island 827.2 59.7% 26.8% 15
Wisconsin 827.6 48.8% 38.5% 16
Florida 828.9 48.0% 42.3% 17
Oregon 834.5 47.2% 39.1% 18
New Hampshire 837.6 49.6% 39.6% 19
New Mexico 839.9 49.2% 41.9% 20
Montana 843.8 41.3% 44.1% 21
Arizona 844.5 46.5% 44.3% 22
Kansas 852 36.1% 54.3% 23
Vermont 856.5 53.4% 31.1% 24
Wyoming 860.1 36.8% 49.8% 25
Alaska 863 33.3% 50.8% 26
New Jersey 863.6 53.7% 35.9% 27
Illinois 877.5 54.3% 36.8% 28
Texas 887.8 43.8% 48.8% 29
Maine 888.4 51.6% 30.8% 30
Michigan 892.8 51.7% 38.5% 31
Virginia 897.9 45.1% 47.1% 32
Pennsylvania 903.6 49.2% 40.0% 33
Maryland 912.1 54.3% 38.3% 34
Delaware 918.4 51.8% 36.6% 35
Missouri 928.3 47.5% 41.2% 36
Ohio 933.6 47.4% 41.0% 37
Indiana 942.8 41.6% 47.1% 38
Nevada 951.5 43.9% 42.9% 39
North Carolina 964.5 44.0% 48.7% 40
Oklahoma 991.7 40.4% 48.3% 41
South Carolina 993.4 44.0% 49.8% 42
Arkansas 1002.1 53.7% 36.8% 43
Georgia 1004.2 45.8% 47.0% 44
Kentucky 1005.2 45.8% 44.9% 45
West Virginia 1010.7 51.5% 36.8% 46
Alabama 1013.6 43.2% 50.1% 47
Louisiana 1020.4 52.0% 39.9% 48
Tennessee 1021.2 48.0% 45.6% 49
Mississippi 1074.8 44.1% 49.2% 50

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