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The violent-crime rate (number/100,000) varies greatly among the states in the United States. (See table at end for 1996 rates.)
An interesting question to ask is: Is there any correlation between the violent-crime rate and the strength of the two political parties in the states?
I compared different state's violent-crime rate (VCR) data for 1996 with the results of the 1996 presidential election for each state. (See table at end for votes in the 1996 election.) A correlation calculation yielded the following:
| Correlation | Rate |
| Democrat vote | +0.160 |
| Republican vote | +0.044 |
That is, the Democratic votes for the states had a 16% positive correlation with increasing VCR and the Republican votes had a 4% positive correlation. States with high violent-crime rate vote more Democratic than Republican and vice versa.
|
| This is a plot of the violent-crime rate (VCR) sorted by rank of the states compared to the Democratic votes and the Republican votes. (See table at end for the data.) Also shown are linear fits to the two votes. This shows visually the positive correlation of VCR with both the Republican and the Democratic votes. |
My Republican native state, Oklahoma (rate=597), ranked 33 of 50 and my Republican adopted state, Virginia (rate=341), ranked 16 of 50 for increasing violent-crime rate in 1997-8.
| U.S. Crime Rates (per 100,000) 1996 | 1996 election | |||
| State | Violent Crime | Democrat | Republican | Rank |
| North Dakota | 84 | 40.1% | 46.9% | 1 |
| New Hampshire | 118 | 49.6% | 39.6% | 2 |
| Vermont | 121 | 53.4% | 31.1% | 3 |
| Maine | 125 | 51.6% | 30.8% | 4 |
| Montana | 161 | 41.3% | 44.1% | 5 |
| South Dakota | 177 | 43.0% | 46.5% | 6 |
| West Virginia | 210 | 51.5% | 36.8% | 7 |
| Wyoming | 250 | 36.8% | 49.8% | 8 |
| Wisconsin | 253 | 48.8% | 38.5% | 9 |
| Idaho | 267 | 33.6% | 52.2% | 10 |
| Iowa | 273 | 50.3% | 39.9% | 11 |
| Hawaii | 281 | 56.9% | 31.6% | 12 |
| Kentucky | 321 | 45.8% | 44.9% | 13 |
| Utah | 332 | 33.3% | 54.4% | 14 |
| Minnesota | 339 | 51.1% | 35.0% | 15 |
| Virginia | 341 | 45.1% | 47.1% | 16 |
| Rhode Island | 347 | 59.7% | 26.8% | 17 |
| Colorado | 405 | 44.4% | 45.8% | 18 |
| Connecticut | 412 | 52.8% | 34.7% | 19 |
| Kansas | 414 | 36.1% | 54.3% | 20 |
| Ohio | 429 | 47.4% | 41.0% | 21 |
| Washington | 431 | 49.8% | 37.3% | 22 |
| Pennsylvania | 433 | 49.2% | 40.0% | 23 |
| Nebraska | 435 | 35.0% | 53.7% | 24 |
| Oregon | 463 | 47.2% | 39.1% | 25 |
| Mississippi | 488 | 44.1% | 49.2% | 26 |
| Arkansas | 524 | 53.7% | 36.8% | 27 |
| New Jersey | 532 | 53.7% | 35.9% | 28 |
| Indiana | 537 | 41.6% | 47.1% | 29 |
| Alabama | 565 | 43.2% | 50.1% | 30 |
| North Carolina | 588 | 44.0% | 48.7% | 31 |
| Missouri | 591 | 47.5% | 41.2% | 32 |
| Oklahoma | 597 | 40.4% | 48.3% | 33 |
| Arizona | 632 | 46.5% | 44.3% | 34 |
| Michigan | 635 | 51.7% | 38.5% | 35 |
| Georgia | 639 | 45.8% | 47.0% | 36 |
| Massachusetts | 642 | 61.5% | 28.1% | 37 |
| Texas | 644 | 43.8% | 48.8% | 38 |
| Delaware | 668 | 51.8% | 36.6% | 39 |
| New York | 727 | 58.3% | 30.0% | 40 |
| Alaska | 728 | 33.3% | 50.8% | 41 |
| Tennessee | 774 | 48.0% | 45.6% | 42 |
| Nevada | 811 | 43.9% | 42.9% | 43 |
| New Mexico | 841 | 49.2% | 41.9% | 44 |
| California | 863 | 51.1% | 38.2% | 45 |
| Illinois | 886 | 54.3% | 36.8% | 46 |
| Louisiana | 929 | 52.0% | 39.9% | 47 |
| Maryland | 931 | 54.3% | 38.3% | 48 |
| South Carolina | 997 | 44.0% | 49.8% | 49 |
| Florida | 1051 | 48.0% | 42.3% | 50 |
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